Creating a forecast – Humanforce

A forecast is where Smart Scheduling starts. It predicts how much demand you'll have for a location and department over a date range, compares that to the headcount you have rostered, and can go on to generate the shifts you need and fill them with employees.

Before you begin, make sure the prerequisites in Configuring Smart Scheduling are in place: a demand feed with history, a Demand Profile, and worked timesheet history.

Create a forecast

You can open the Create Forecast dialog from two places:

Roster Manager: select the Smart Scheduling button, then Create Forecast.
Manage Forecasts: on the Smart Scheduling page, select Create Forecast.

Complete the details below, then select Create Forecast.

Field	Required?	What to enter
Forecast Name	Yes	A name to help you identify the forecast later, up to 50 characters. It appears on the Manage Forecasts page and in any Demand Template created from it.
Date range	Yes	The dates you want to forecast. Forecasts start from tomorrow onwards. How far ahead you can forecast depends on the demand interval of your Demand Profile.
Location	Yes	The location to forecast for. You only see locations you have permission to view. It must match the location of the Demand Profile.
Department	No	The department to forecast for. Choose None to forecast every department in the location. The department must match the Demand Profile: a profile with a department can only be used for that department, and a profile with no department can only be used with None.
Area	No	Narrow the forecast to a specific area. If you select one, any shifts that are generated are created in that area. You need to choose a department first.
Event	No	Forecast for a specific event, for venues where demand depends on what is on. The list is available once you have chosen a date range, location and department, and only shows events within your date range.
Demand Profile	Yes	The profile that describes the demand signal for this location and department. It is listed by its Display Name. Choose the location (and department, if you use one) first.
Optimisation Model	Yes	The approach used to balance service and cost. See the options below.
Additional Actions	No	Optionally generate shifts and/or autofill them as part of the same run. See below.

You do not need to choose a historical date range. Smart Scheduling uses the history available for your Demand Profile and location (see the data requirements in Configuring Smart Scheduling).

How far ahead you can forecast

The longest forecast you can create depends on the demand interval set on your Demand Profile (the time slice your demand is measured in):

Demand interval	Maximum forecast length
15 minutes	49 days (7 weeks)
30 minutes	49 days (7 weeks)
1 hour	49 days (7 weeks)
1 day	182 days (26 weeks)

The length is counted from the end of your latest demand data to the end of your forecast. It is not counted from today or from the date you start the forecast. That means the days between your most recent data and your forecast start date use up part of the limit. For example, if your latest demand data is for 18 October and you forecast 20 October to 2 November, the forecast is counted as 19 October to 2 November (15 days).

Smart Scheduling also needs history of at least 3.5 times the forecast length, and uses up to 52 weeks of it. For 1-day intervals this means the longest forecast you can create is around 100 days in practice, even though the limit is 182.

These limits are set by the forecasting engine and may increase over time. If you ask for more than the limit allows, the forecast can't be created and you'll see a message about the dates being too far in the future. To fix it, load your most recent demand data, shorten the forecast, split the period into separate forecasts, or use a Demand Profile with a longer interval, such as 1 day.

Optimisation Model

Option	How it behaves
Baseline	Allocates resources based on the historic average demand for comparable workload periods.
Service Optimised	Allocates with increased staffing to improve customer service and support higher sales.
Cost Optimised	Allocates with the minimum staff required to reduce costs while meeting demand.

Additional Actions

A forecast on its own shows you the expected demand. You can also ask Smart Scheduling to act on it in the same run:

Generate shifts creates the shifts needed to meet the forecast demand. You must choose where the shifts go (see below).
Autofill shifts assigns employees to shifts. If you select both, the shifts are generated and then filled. See Autofilling shifts.

Choosing where generated shifts go

When you select Generate shifts, you must choose a destination every time. There is no default.

Destination	What happens
Live Roster	Shifts are created directly on the roster. They are unpublished and unconfirmed, so you can review and edit them before your team sees them.
Demand Template	Shifts are stored in a Demand Template, a staging area where you can review them against the forecast and adjust them before importing them to the live roster. Nothing changes on the live roster until you import. Open the template from the Manage Forecasts page. See Demand Templates .

If you choose Demand Template, the demand graph is shown in the template but not in Roster Manager. Demand Templates can cover up to 84 days.

What shift generation takes into account

The forecast demand for each role and interval, within the minimum and maximum headcount set on the Demand Profile.
Your operating hours, which Smart Scheduling works out from your historical timesheets.
Your award and break rules, including meal break requirements.
Shifts already on the roster for the dates you chose.

Demand Profile not fully configured

If the Demand Profile doesn't have minimum and maximum headcount values, a Warning appears as soon as you select the profile. It explains that the profile isn't fully configured and that, if you carry on, Smart Scheduling will assume a minimum headcount of 1 and a maximum headcount of 10. Select OK to continue creating the forecast. The warning stops appearing once the profile has headcount values set. To use your own values, update the Demand Profile first.

Forecasting for an event

If you select an Event, the forecast covers that event's dates and uses the history of similar events (matched by event category) as well as your other filters, and any shifts generated are tied to that event. This needs enough historical events to learn from.

After you select Create Forecast

A confirmation message appears and the forecast is queued for processing. Processing runs in the background and can take a few minutes, depending on the date range and what you've asked it to do. You can carry on working in the meantime. The forecast appears on the Manage Forecasts page, and its status updates automatically when it finishes.

The Manage Forecasts page

Manage Forecasts (the Smart Scheduling page) lists every forecast, and is the starting point for opening the outputs. Open it from the Smart Scheduling menu in Roster Manager. You can open it in a new tab using the icon beside the menu item.

For each forecast the list shows the name, location, department, demand profile, period, the optimisation model used, who last edited it and when. It also shows a status for each stage that was requested: Forecast, Generate Shifts and Autofill.

Status	Meaning
Pending	The request is queued and waiting to be processed.
Processing	Smart Scheduling is working on it.
Completed	That stage finished successfully.
Failed	The stage didn't complete. Use View Logs to find out why.

Actions for each forecast

Open the menu at the end of a row to:

Open Forecast: go to Roster Manager with the demand graph showing for that forecast.
Open Roster: go to the roster containing the generated shifts. It is shown when shifts were sent to the live roster, and also after a Demand Template has been imported to the roster.
Open Template: open the Demand Template that was created (shown when shifts were sent to a Demand Template).
View Logs: see a plain-language log of what happened during processing, including any errors.

The Open options are available once the forecast has finished processing.

Messages you might see

Smart Scheduling checks your request before it starts. These are the most common messages and how to resolve them.

Message	What it means and what to do
This field is required	A required field is blank. Check the name, dates, location and Demand Profile.
Should not be more than 50 characters	The forecast name is too long. Shorten it.
Please select where shifts should be created	You selected Generate shifts but haven't chosen Live Roster or Demand Template.
Select a location and department first	Choose a location and department before selecting a Demand Profile.
Nonexistent historical sales data for the selected forecast start and end dates	There is no demand data in the Demand Profile's feed from before your forecast start date. Check the feed and that demand data has been loaded for it.
Insufficient historical sales data for the selected forecast start and end dates	There isn't enough demand history. You need at least 3.5 times the forecast length, counted from the end of your latest data. Load more history or choose a shorter forecast.
The Forecast dates are too far in the future or you are missing latest historical sales data	Counted from the end of your latest demand data, the forecast is longer than the limit for your interval. Load your most recent demand data, or shorten the forecast.
No roles with historical head count data were found	There are no worked timesheets for the location, department and area in your history. Check the history is recorded against the right location, department, area and roles.
Insufficient historical timesheet data for the selected forecast dates	Your worked timesheet history doesn't go back far enough. You need at least 3.5 times the forecast length before the forecast starts.
Secondary input type(s) do not have sufficient data within the required date range	The extra demand feed on the Demand Profile doesn't have data in the history period. Load more data for it, or remove it from the profile.
Insufficient historical event data for the selected event	There aren't enough similar past events. See the event requirements in Configuring Smart Scheduling .
Event archetype not found for the selected event	The event's type doesn't have an event category set. Ask your administrator to set the Category on the Event Type.
Demand templates cannot exceed 84 days. Please reduce the forecast date range.	You chose Demand Template as the destination for a range longer than 84 days. Shorten the date range.